Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight sluggers Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev will clash TONIGHT (Sat., March 8, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, at UFC 313.
It’s hard to believe “Poatan” has only been on UFC’s roster for about 3.5 years … and he’s already risen to the rank of legend. The two-division champion has already defended his Light Heavyweight crown three times, scoring three impressive knockouts in 2024 to stand out as one of the best fighters of the year. It’s notable, however, that he faced a trio of strikers. Ankalaev has lingered in the background his entire reign, sidetracked with weird rematches and a draw versus Jan Blachowicz. Misadventures aside, Ankalaev is undoubtedly one of the best in the world, a unique combination of excellent boxing and masterful Sambo. He can threaten Pereira on the floor in a way no other current 205-pound contender can, which really adds an element of intrigue to this main event.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC Pereira vs. Ankalaev Betting Odds
- Alex Pereira victory: -120
- Alex Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: +150
- Alex Pereira via submission: +1400
- Alex Pereira via decision: +600
- Magomed Ankalaev victory: +100
- Magomed Ankalaev via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
- Magomed Ankalaev via submission: +900
- Magomed Ankalaev via decision: +325
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Pereira Wins
Pereira might just be the best striker in UFC history. He’s certainly built up an argument in a short period of time, leveling an elite caliber of competition on the feet with a unique regularity. Whether you believe Pereira is a combat sports G.O.A.T. or overhyped, it’s impossible to deny that he’s a special talent.
Range will be key here. Ankalaev can talk about knocking out Pereira as much as he’d like, but he’s going to try to wrestle — he would be a fool not to.
Pereira has shown an ability to stalk his prey or move well on the outside, and the latter is called for here. I’d like to see Pereira moving like he did versus Sean Strickland, circling the outside with jabs up-and-down the body. That’s a good time for those low calf kicks — a proven weapon against Ankalaev — to begin to build up.
Pereira’s body jab is like a shotgun blast. It should serve him well in keeping Ankalaev in boxing mode and off his legs. Every moment Pereira has to read his foe on the feet increases his odds of lining up a huge connection or just continuing to build up attritional damage to the legs.
How Ankalaev Wins
A Master of Sport in Combat Sambo, Ankalaev made his name by dragging opponents to the floor and absolutely smashing them with ground strikes. Since joining UFC, he’s spent a lot more time standing, showing off his powerful counter punching and solid defensive skills.
The Southpaw should waste not time in establishing the wrestling threat. There’s a good chance he can drag down Pereira right off the bat, and he’s much more threatening from top position than somebody like Blachowicz. Indeed, a single takedown could produce devastating connections and change the fight.
Pereira has been training for months now to stop that shot, of course. Even if the early takedown doesn’t materialize, the simple threat of the takedown chances so much about the stand up flow. Jiri Prochazka — noted non-wrestler — found success in feinting toward the hips then firing in combination. Pereira can be backed into the fence, and there’s no easy way to deny both takedowns and punches from that position.
Ankalaev will have to mind his defensive P’s and Q’s, but mixing up his attack is his best chance at victory.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC Pereira vs. Ankalaev Prediction
There are clear paths to victory for both men. This feels like a fight that has an equal chance of being a dominant victory for either athlete, as well as a bloody war of attrition that goes all five rounds. It’s all on the table, and I could write out a logical explanation for any of those scenarios happening.
When logic isn’t good enough, we’re left with gut feelings and intuition. I have picked against Pereira several times during his Light Heavyweight run, and — OBVIOUSLY — I have been burned several times. I’ve come to believe that “Poatan” will find the opening regardless of the weaknesses in his game, the opportunities for his opponent on paper.
There’s also the elephant in the room: Ankalaev routinely does dumb stuff in the cage, and Pereira is not the guy to forgive those errors.
Prediction: Pereira via knockout (+150)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 313 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 313: “Pereira vs. Ankalaev” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.